IB Predicted Grades: What They Are and Why They Matter

 If a student’s IB predicted grades feel like an early verdict on their future, it is worth remembering what the number actually is: a teacher’s forecast, built from evidence gathered over a single school year, submitted to universities that will not see a final IB result for many more months. Understanding how that forecast is built, how accurate it tends to be, and what to do if it falls short, is the difference between reacting to a number and using it strategically.

What Are IB Predicted Grades?

IB predicted grades are the scores a student’s subject teachers expect them to achieve in each final IB exam, expressed on the same 1 to 7 scale used for the actual Diploma. They are drawn up by the school, not by the International Baccalaureate Organisation (IBO), and there is no single formula the IBO applies across all schools. That means two students with near-identical coursework profiles at different schools can, in principle, receive different predictions.

Predicted grades exist to solve a timing problem. Most UK university applications, and many US ones, are submitted before a student sits a single final IB exam. Universities need some evidence of academic potential to decide who receives an offer, so schools supply predicted grades as that evidence. For a full breakdown of how the 1 to 7 scale works alongside the wider 45-point Diploma total, see IB Innovators’ IB grading scale and points calculator.

How Are IB Predicted Grades Calculated?

There is no IBO-mandated formula, but most schools draw on the same core evidence when a teacher sits down to predict a grade:

• Internal Assessment (IA) marks already completed and, where relevant, IA drafts still in progress
• Mock exam results, often weighted heavily because they simulate real exam conditions
• Class tests, homework quality and consistency of coursework across the year
• Classroom participation and engagement, used as supporting evidence rather than a primary factor
• The teacher’s professional judgement of the student’s likely trajectory between now and the final exam

A common (though not universal) weighting pattern is worth knowing, because it explains why two subjects can feel very differently predictable:

• Group 3 to 5 subjects (individuals and societies, sciences, mathematics): roughly 80 percent assessment evidence and 20 percent coursework
• Group 1 and 2 subjects (language and literature, language acquisition): closer to an even 50/50 split between assessment and coursework

Because the Extended Essay and Theory of Knowledge feed into the Diploma’s bonus points rather than a subject grade, teachers predicting a student’s overall total also need to estimate performance in the core, not just the six subjects. Students unsure how their own school weighs these components should ask their coordinator directly, or book one-on-one IA and EE guidance to get a clearer read on where their evidence currently sits.

Predicted Grades vs Final Grades: What Is the Difference?

Predicted and final grades look similar on paper, both sit on the same 1 to 7 scale, but they are produced by different people, at different times, for different purposes. The table below sets out the key distinctions.

Why IB Predicted Grades Matter for University Admissions

UK Universities and UCAS

UK universities build conditional offers almost entirely around predicted grades, because a UCAS application is submitted long before final IB results exist. An offer will typically specify both a minimum Diploma total and minimum grades in named Higher Level subjects, so a strong overall prediction does not guarantee an offer if a single required HL subject falls short. Deadlines matter here: applications for Oxford, Cambridge, and courses in medicine, dentistry, and veterinary science close on 15 October, while most other UK universities close on 31 January, both in the second year of the Diploma. For subject-specific guidance on which HL combinations tend to meet competitive offers, IB Innovators’ IB tutoring services overview breaks down HL versus SL requirements by subject.

US and Other International Universities

US universities generally take a more holistic view. Predicted grades are submitted through Common App or a school report, but they sit alongside essays, extracurricular activities, leadership roles and, where required, standardised test scores. A slightly lower prediction is far less likely to end a US application outright than it would a UK one, though genuinely strong predictions still strengthen scholarship and merit-aid decisions.

How Accurate Are IB Predicted Grades?

 Overprediction is more common than underprediction, largely because schools have an incentive to give students the best possible chance of a competitive offer. Underprediction tends to appear in two situations: genuinely borderline students where a teacher chooses caution, and cases where Internal Assessment marks are still being moderated when the prediction is written. Accuracy also varies by subject; subjects with heavier IA weighting give teachers more concrete evidence to work from than exam-heavy subjects, where a single mock result can swing a prediction in either direction.

The 45-Point Scale, Grade Boundaries and Bonus Points

The IB Diploma’s maximum score is 45 points: up to 7 points in each of six subjects (42 points total), plus up to 3 additional bonus points earned through the combined performance of the Extended Essay and Theory of Knowledge. Grade boundaries, the raw mark ranges that map onto each 1 to 7 grade, are set separately for every subject and every exam session, so they are not fixed percentages that carry over from year to year.

A detail that catches many students off guard: a single grade drop in either the Extended Essay or Theory of Knowledge can reduce the overall Diploma total by one point without a single subject grade changing at all. If a final total comes in one or two points below prediction, it is worth checking the bonus point matrix before assuming a subject resit is the only fix. To pass the Diploma at all, a student needs a minimum of 24 out of 45 points, no more than two grade 2s, and a pass in the Creativity, Activity and Service (CAS) requirement, which is graded pass or fail and does not add points of its own. For the complete set of award conditions beyond the headline 24-point minimum, see our IB Diploma requirements guide.

What Is a Good IB Predicted Score?

What counts as a strong prediction depends entirely on where a student wants to apply. Most UK universities look for predicted totals between 32 and 36 points. Oxbridge and other highly selective courses typically require 38 to 40 points or more, alongside specific Higher Level grades in named subjects. For context, the global average DP score for the May 2026 session was 30.88 out of 45, and Russell Group applicants are generally advised to aim for 35 or above as a safer benchmark. For a fuller explanation of how different totals compare, read our guide to what counts as a good IB score. Students can also review subject-specific grade guidance across all IB subjects to see where their strongest subjects sit relative to typical entry requirements.

Can IB Predicted Grades Be Changed?

Predicted grades can be revised before a UCAS or Common App application is submitted, but there is no formal IBO appeals process for them; the IBO does not set predicted grades and has no mechanism to alter them. The school’s professional judgement is final. Students who believe a prediction is too low should approach the subject teacher first, with concrete evidence such as an IA draft mark or recent mock results, rather than an appeal based on aspiration alone. If the teacher declines, the IB coordinator can review the prediction against the school’s internal benchmarks, though they cannot simply override a teacher’s judgement without good reason. Once an application has been submitted, corrections become very difficult to make, particularly for highly selective courses, so this conversation is best had early in the first term of DP2.

What to Do If Your Final IB Grades Are Lower Than Predicted

Missing a predicted grade is stressful, but the options that follow are more specific than most students realise:

• UCAS Clearing: opens in July for UK applicants who do not meet their firm offer, matching students to unfilled places at other universities
• Subject resits: the IBO removed its three-attempt limit on retakes in 2023, so IB students can now resit individual subjects, rather than the whole Diploma, in the May or November session
• Deferred entry: some universities allow a gap year and reapplication using the final, confirmed grades, handled case by case rather than through a standard UCAS process
• Remark requests: if a mark appears to have been assessed incorrectly, the school can request an official IBO remark, though fees apply and results can move up or down

Students planning a focused resit often benefit from a structured, time-boxed programme rather than open-ended self-study. IB Innovators’ Rapid Revision and IB Exam Retakes Course is built specifically for this scenario.

Using Your IB Predicted Grades to Build Your UCAS List

A balanced UCAS list should be built from both the predicted total and the exact Higher Level subject conditions for each course. Divide the five choices across three practical bands:

•     Aspirational: one or two choices at or slightly above the predicted total. For highly selective courses, this often means 38 to 40 points or more, with every named HL condition already covered.
•     Matched: two or three choices whose typical offer sits within roughly zero to two points of the prediction, often in the 32 to 36 range, with the required subjects and HL grades fully met.
•     Safe: at least one choice around three or more points below the prediction, including below 32 where appropriate, while still meeting every compulsory subject condition.

Overall points are only one part of the offer. A student predicted 40 cannot meet a Biochemistry condition requiring a 6 in HL Chemistry if Chemistry is not being taken at Higher Level, however strong the total may be. The firm and insurance choices should also have a meaningful gap: if both offers sit within two points of each other and the final result drops by three points, both places can be lost.

Before finalising the list, check the UCAS historical entry grades tool. It shows the grade profiles previously held by accepted applicants, rather than only the headline entry requirement. IB students should use the UCAS Tariff view where available and compare it with the course’s published IB total and HL conditions. The data is historical guidance, not a prediction of whether a current application will succeed.

On UCAS, predicted grades are entered by the school or college adviser for qualifications marked as pending; the student does not type them into the application. Students should confirm the agreed predictions with their school before submission because UCAS cannot amend predicted grades after the application has been sent. For Common App applications, schools normally submit predictions through the counsellor or school report materials.

How to Improve Your IB Predicted Grades

Because predicted grades are built from evidence gathered over time, the most reliable way to influence one is to strengthen that evidence early, rather than waiting for the prediction itself to arrive:

• Treat every IA draft as a formal submission, not a rough attempt, and act on teacher feedback quickly
• Prepare for mock exams under real timed conditions rather than reviewing notes casually beforehand
• Keep homework and classwork consistent across the whole year; teachers weigh trajectory as well as raw scores
• Ask teachers directly what evidence is missing from a current prediction, and address it specifically rather than generally
• Bring in targeted, subject-specific support where a particular topic or exam technique is holding a grade back

For students who want that support from someone who has sat on the other side of the mark scheme, IB Innovators’ tutors include current and former IB examiners across every subject group. Book a one-on-one session with a certified IB tutor to get a diagnostic review of where a predicted grade is likely to land, and a plan to move it before the school’s next round of predictions.

Book a Free Consultation Not sure whether a predicted grade reflects real potential, or what to do about one that has already come in lower than expected? Speak to an IB Innovators certified examiner-tutor for a free diagnostic session covering current evidence, realistic targets, and a subject-by-subject plan for the months before final exams.

Frequently Asked Questions